Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
